重庆市产业结构、能源消费与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationships Among Industry Structure,Energy Consumption and Economic Development of Chongqing City

采用新古典生产函数法,在协整检验与分析的基础上,通过建立向量自回归模型,用Granger因果检验以及脉冲响应分析的方法,考察了重庆市三次产业发展与三次产业能源消费之间的关系.分析结果表明,重庆市经济增长还没有摆脱粗放的高能耗增长模式,能源消费不断上升,主要不是由第一产业和第三产业造成,而是由第二产业的发展所造成的.要缓解经济增长中的能源消费需求压力,只有通过产业结构调整,变粗放增长为集约增长才是可行之路.

Using the Cobb-Douglas function, and based on cointegration analysis, we build up a VAR model. Via Granger causality test and impulse response function analysis, we examine the relationships of the development of the three industries （primary, secondary and tertiary industries） in Chongqing with their energy consumption. The results show that Choingqing＇s economic development remains to be of the high-energy cost and low-output type, and the secondary industry is mainly responsible for this low energy efficiency. In order to alleviate the energy pressure in Chongqing＇s economic development, we should change the industry structures and the pattern of economic development.