中国货币条件指数的理论研究与动态分析

Theoretic Research and Dynamic Analysis of the Chinese Monetary Condition Index

本文首先讨论了货币条件指数的理论基础,同时论述了货币政策信贷传导渠道在中国的发展现状,并且剖析了其特征。然后笔者构建了中国的动态货币条件指数模型,其中包含了体现中国货币政策利率传导渠道的实际利率、汇率传导渠道的实际有效汇率以及信贷传导渠道的贷款增长率。在计算出实际利率、实际有效汇率和贷款增长率的动态权重后,得出中国的动态货币条件指数,其自2000年以来出现了先提高、后降低、再升高的交替态势,表明中国的货币状况自2000年以来处于由紧到松再紧的动态走势。本文最后还根据动态权重的大小及其走势分析了中国货币状况呈现该趋势的主要原因。

The paper frist discussed the monetary condition index rationale, simultaneously elaborated the monetary policy credit conduction in China＇s development. Analyzing the characteristics of monetary policy conducted channel in recent years, we construct a dynamic monetary condition index model, in which it has contained the real interest rate, the effeetive exchange rate as well as the loan rate of increment. After calculating the dynamic weight of the real interest rate, the actual effeetive exchange rate and the loan rate of increment, we obtained the Chinese dynamic monetary eondifion index, which since 2000 has enhanced firstly, reduced, and then elevated in turn. It reveals the Chinese currency condition has been from fight to the pine tight dynamic trend since 2000. According to the dynamic weight and trend, the paper analyzes the main reason of changes in the Chinese currency condition.