基于AHP及Logit回归的航空线路选择模型--以上海市民港澳游产品为例

Analysis of Shanghai ticket pricing strategy over the air travel in HK and Macao based on AHP and Logit models

聚焦同一目的地、多条线路可选的航空旅游,本文为顾客如何选择航空旅行产品以及航空公司如何定价提供了一个全新的定价模型.首先,通过层次分析法探讨游客选择线路的主要因素及其权重,以上海市民港澳游线路为案例,定量解析三类港澳游产品的旅行成本;同时运用Logit回归模型,构造出不同线路的概率选择函数,即货币成本相对值与选择概率之间的定量关系.其次,针对廉价航空之代表——春秋航空,对上海市民港澳游航空定价问题提出对策.最后总结并预测未来"航旅联合"的发展趋势.

Through the utilization of AHP ＆ Logit model, three different kinds of HK ＆ Macao-tour products in Shanghai from the perspective of travel cost are studied, followed by constructing the function between relative value of money cost and selection probability. Focused on the Spring Airlines, the countermeasures for pricing of air travel are putting forward. In addition, the development trends of ＂aviation ＆ tourism association＂ model are discussed.