世界经济波动的贸易传导与影响--以美国为例的实证分析

Transmission and Influence of Fluctuations in the World Economy through Trade

在1979-2005年度经济数据基础上,用协整、VAR脉冲响应和方差分解等计量方法,以美国为例实证分析世界贸易是如何影响和传导世界经济波动的。结果表明,美国的贸易额和GDP的波动周期存在高度的协动性;美国经济的波动是美国贸易的Granger原因,而美国的贸易波动不是其经济波动的Granger原因;美国GDP方差分解中自身的解释成分高于贸易的解释成分,贸易方差的分解中自身的解释成分低于经济的解释成分;美国经济波动通过国际贸易对世界经济的传导作用呈正相关关系。

On the basis of annual economic data for 1979 - 2005, this paper takes an econometric approach - cointegration, VAR impulse response and variance decomposition - to conduct a case study of the US to show how world trade influence and transmit fluctuations in the world economy. The results indicate that there is high cointegration between fluctuations in trade and GDP and that economic fluctuations are the Granger cause of trade fluctuations, but trade fluctuations are not that of economic fluctuations. In the variance decomposition of GDP, its own explanatory cgmponent is higher than that of trade, and in the variance decomposition of trade, its own explanatory component is lower than that of the economy. Fluctuations in the US economy has a positive correlation with the world economy through international trade.