我国安全生产发展趋势的计量分析

The Econometric Analyses of Work Safety Tendency in China

在分析我国1990—2005年安全生产指标变动规律的基础上，建立了安全生产指标的长期趋势模型，并对安全生产指标进行了预测。同时，分别以人均GDP指标为解释变量、安全生产指标为被解释变量建立了计量关系模型，以此反映我国安全生产随经济发展的变动规律。研究表明，从业人员10万人死亡率呈波动上升趋势，与人均GDP指标存在显著二次关系；亿元GDP死亡率指标呈现持续下降趋势。这表明在我国经济总量快速增长的过程中安全负担水平得到了较好控制。

Based on the analysis of changes in safety indexes between 1990 - 2005 in our country, model of developing trend of safety indexes was established, using which work safety indexes were forecasted. Meanwhile, taking the safety index as dependent variable, the per capita GDP as independent variable, an economic relations model was established, with which we analyze the relationship between work safety and economic development. The research indicates that the death rate per hundred thousand people displays an undulate upward trend, while the death rate per hundred million GDP displays a downward trend. The result shows that the safety economic indexes have been under good control with the fast increase of economy.