中美战略稳定性的考察

Analysis on the Strategic Stability between China and the United States

美国近年来的战略武器调整与发展给中美之间的战略稳定性带来了新的不确定性。这种不确定性一方面有可能加大美国决策者对核威压的兴趣,另一方面可能迫使中国决策者为未来战略能力发展预留更大的余地。核禁忌对于维护中美战略稳定性关系重大,但是目前受到了一些边缘性的挑战。中美在核不扩散等合作中建立的互信有助于双边战略的稳定性,但仍需加强沟通。

The U.S. development of strategic weapons has brought new uncertainties to the strategic stability between China and the U.S. On the one hand, the uncertainties could make the U.S. decision makers be more interested in nuclear coercion, while on the other hand it would also force China to reserve large flexibility for future development of strategic capability. Nuclear taboo has been critical to the strategic stability between China and the U.S. and now it is facing some marginal challenges. China and the U.S. have built mutual trust upon nonproliferation cooperation but still need better communication.