Witty蠕虫的传播模型与分析

Witty worm propagation modeling and analysis

为了能够深入了解Witty蠕虫传播的具体过程和采取更为有效的防御措施,利用动力学方法提出了一个含有潜伏期且在潜伏期内和感染阶段均具有传染性的模型.根据网络的实际情况,该模型考虑了延时因素,采用了动态感染率.利用该模型得出了蠕虫爆发的阈值.将已有的模型与该模型进行了比较,仿真结果表明:该模型能更好地符合Witty蠕虫的实际传播数据,偏差比已有的模型分别减小了4.4%和6.2%.

A new model is proposed based on dynamic method to insight into witty worm deeply and guard against it effectively. This model contains the worm＇s incubation period and its spread period in both incubation and influence stages. The delay factors were considered, and the dynamic infection rate was used in this model according to actual networks. The threshold value of speedily propagation of witty worm was found by using this model. By the comparison of existing model with the proposed one, the results indicate that the model is good agreesment with the real data of witty worm propagation; the errors of the proposed model are less 4.4 %-6.2% than that of existing model.