国民经济增长中的出口信用联动机制定量研究

Research on Contribution of the Export Credit to Chinese National Economy

文章利用1978年至2004年的数据,采用三阶段最小二乘方法构建并拟合了包含6个子模块、25个方程和43个变量的"出口信用对国民经济贡献的联立方程模型"。利用联立方程模型进行仿真研究后的结果表明:我国出口信用对我国宏观经济具有较好的贡献度,具体而言,如果进出口银行贷款余额增加1亿元,将导致国内生产总值增长1.82亿元,税收总额增长0.48亿元,就业人数增加2190人。

A simultaneous equation model which contains 6 models, 25 e- quations and 43 variables has been constructed to analyze the contribution of the export credit to Chinese national economy. We used three-stage least squares estimation method to estimate the parameter. Model fits the data well. Simulation research shows that if loans balance increases by ￥1,000, GDP will be expected to increase by about ￥1,820, the tax will increase by ￥479 and the number of employees will increase by 0. 219 people.