服务贸易的动态发展模型研究——兼对中国数据的实证检验

Dynamic Development of Service Trade:Theory Model and Empirical Analysis

文章以新的视角研究服务贸易的动态发展,首先借鉴新增长理论中的研究与开发模型——将资源分配到两个生产部门——讨论内生要素动态变化的分析方法,针对资源在对外贸易的货物生产以及服务生产这两个最终产品部门之间的分配建立模型,分析了在不同的现有服务贸易规模影响状态下,服务贸易的动态变化以及其他变量对其运动情况的影响。其次结合模型,对我国的服务贸易发展状况进行了实证研究,得出的主要结论是,准确了解服务贸易的规模报酬状况,是分析市场发展战略的关键;中国的服务贸易正呈现出规模报酬递增的状态,但仍表现为劳动和资本密集型的特征。

This paper analyses the dynamic development of service trade through the unique perspective. Firstly taking the method of Research and Development model as reference, we put forward a new model about resources＇ distribution in goods production and service production which are specially used for foreign trade, and discusses the dynamic development of service trade under the different service trade scale and the effects the other variables bring to the service traders development. Secondly based on the theory model, the paper has carried on the empirical study of the development of our country＇s service trade. We conclude that the deep study about the scale of service trade plays the key role to analyze the development strategy of service trade market China＇s service trade are at the increasing returns to scale stage, and the two product factors, capital ＆ labor, both take great effects on service products＇ outputs.