基于系统动力学的宏观层电网规划的仿真模型

Simulation Model of Transmission Network Macro-planning Based on System Dynamics

宏观层电网规划面向中长期电网规划,从全网总量的角度解决逐年电网的投建容量、线路投建总长等问题。该文提出用系统动力学方法研究宏观层电网规划的仿真模型,首先分析了系统动力学模型对解决宏观层电网规划仿真模型的适用性;然后,建立了宏观层电网规划仿真各环节的数学模型,并且把电网规划和输电价格联系起来进行系统分析,从而建立了宏观层电网规划的动态模型,贯穿历史和未来,研究宏观层电网规划仿真的过程量和发展趋势;最后,应用该文提出的模型和方法对某地区的宏观层电网规划进行了算例分析研究,验证了系统动力学模型的有效性。

Transmission network macro-planning orients to the medium-long term grid planning and solves the problem from the point of view of the entire grid--grid expansion capacity and new lines constructed for each year, etc. It is proposed that apply system dynamics to study the simulation of transmission network macro-planning. Fristly, the feasibility of using system dynamics model to study transmission network macro-planning simulation is analyzed. Secondly, the simulation model of every part of transmission network macro- planning is set up. The relationship of grid planning and transmission price is constructed and analyzed, so the dynamic model of macro-planning is set up and used to research the process and trend from history to future. Finally, a case of transmission network macro-planning using models and methods proposed in this paper demonstrates the validity of the system dynamics model.