负荷预测中的温度热累积效应分析模型及处理方法

Analysis Model and Processing Approach for Thermal Cumulative Effect of Temperature in Load Forecasting

为研究气温与电力负荷的关系,剖析了夏季温度与负荷之间的相关性,在此基础上分供电能力充足和供电能力不足两种情况讨论了热累积效应对负荷的影响,提出了基于模糊理论的温度热累积效应与负荷的关系模型及处理方法。在实际负荷预测过程中,采用上述方法对持续高温日负荷预测结果进行了修正。分析结果表明,该模型能有效地反映热累积效应和负荷之间的变化关系。

To research the relation between air temperature and power load, the correlation between summer temperature and load is dissected, on this basis the influence of thermal cumulative effect on load is researched according to two conditions, i.e., sufficient power supply capability and insufficient power supply capability, then a fuzzy theory based relational model and processing approach for thermal cumulative effect of temperature and load are proposed. In practical application process, the daily load forecasting result under continuous high temperature is modified by above-mentioned processing approach. Results of calculation example show that the proposed model can effectively reflect the variation law between thermal cumulative effect and load.