摘要
基于混沌理论,研究水文科学的尺度问题,将混沌分析方法应用于径流的降尺度计算。通过分析大时间尺度的年径流量分解到小时间尺度的月径流量的分解系数的混沌特征量,论证了分解系数具有混沌特性。在此基础上,对分解系数的预测方法提出改进意见并给出具体算法。然后根据预测结果进行月径流量的降尺度计算。实例研究表明,改进的算法用于径流量的降尺度分析具有明显的优点。
In this paper, the problem of hydrological scale is discussed based on the chaos theory, and a method of chaos theory is used to analyze runoff downscaling. Through comparison of the chaotic characteristics of decomposition coefficient of annual runoff in large scale with decomposed monthly runoff in small scale, it is demonstrated that decomposition coefficient belongs to chaotic series. On this basis, deficiencies existing in the present model are disclosed, and modification opinions and a concrete algorithm are put forward. Then, the predicted result is used to calculate monthly runoff. Calculation results demonstrate that using the modification algorithm to downscaling analysis of runoff is highly effective.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2008年第1期20-22,25,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
混沌理论
水文尺度分析
径流
分解系数
相似相空间预测模型
chaos theory
hydrological scale analysis
runoff
decomposition coefficient
prediction model based on neighbor phase space
