河北省近50年气候变化对水资源的影响

Impacts of Climatic Change on Water Resources of Hebei Province in Recent 50 Years

利用河北省境内68个气象站、105处水文站1956-2000年近50年的气象、水文、水资源评价数据，分析了气候要素变化对水资源量的影响。从年代上看，河北省年平均气温总体上呈现上升趋势，平均每10年升高0.3～0．4℃；年平均蒸发量呈现下降趋势，平均每10年下降62mm；年平均降水量逐渐减少，平均每10年减少15mm。全省多年平均水资源量为204．9亿m^3，总体来看水资源量呈逐渐减少的趋势。水资源量随降水量的减少而减少，随气温的升高而下降，用回归方法建立的水资源量与气象要素之间的数学模型为对数型非线性模型。通过灵敏度分析，降水量变化对水资源量的影响明显大于气温、蒸发量变化对水资源量的影响。根据未来气候变化对水资源量的预测，2030年河北省在降水量增加4％～12％、气温升高1．1～1．4℃的条件下，全省水资源量为200．9-232．3亿m^3；2050年河北省在降水量增加4％～14％、气温升高1．7～2．2℃的条件下，全省水资源量为194．3-221．2亿m^3。

According to the data of meteorology, runoff and water resources of 68 weather stations and 105 hydrologic stations in Hebei Province from 1956 to 2000, the impacts of climatic factor change on the quantity of water resources are analyzed. The average annual temperature in the province has been increasing with time gradually, and it increases 0. 3-0. 4 ℃ every ten years on average; the average annual evaporation as a whole has appeared a tendency to decline, and it descends 62mm every ten years; and the average annual precipitation has gradually diminished by the years, and it descends 15 mm every ten years. The total quantity of water resources of the whole province is 204.9 × 10^8 m^3. With the decrease of the precipitation and the rise of the temperature, the quantity of water resources declines. The models of climatic essential factors and the quantity of water resource established by utilizing the multiple regression analysis are logarithmic non-linear functions. Obviously, the impact of precipitation variation on the quantity of water resources is more than the effect of the temperature or the evaporation change on the quantity of water resources by the sensitivity analysis. According to the prediction of the quantity of water resources with regard to the future climatic change, the total quantity of water resources of the whole province will alter from 200. 9 to 232. 3 × 10^8 m^3 in 2030 when the annual precipitation increases from 4% to 12%, and the annual temperature goes up form 1.1 to 1.4℃. Similarly, the quantity of water resource will vary from 194. 3 to 221.2× 10^8 m^3 when the precipitation increases from 4% to 14%, and the temperature goes up from 1.7 to 2. 2 ℃.