高含水后期油田开发指标预测

Prediction for oilfield development index during high-water cut later stage

将乙型水驱特征曲线与指数递减预测模型相结合,提出了一种预测水驱油田进入递减阶段开发指标和可采储量的联解法,并针对油田进入递减阶段含水率的变化特点对乙型水驱特征曲线预测法进行了改进。该方法克服了乙型水驱特征曲线和指数递减预测模型在动态预测中存在的各自缺点,并提高了含水率预测的精度,为油田进入递减阶段开发指标的预测提供了较好的预测方法。将水驱开发成熟油田生产数据与该方法预测结果进行对比分析比较,表明该方法实用有效。在今后的开发过程中可以利用该方法对开发指标进行预测,以指导实际开发生产。

Combining Type B water flooding feature curve with index decline prediction model, a method of resultant is proposed which is used to predict development index and recoverable reserves of water flooding oilfield in decline stage. Aiming at variation features of water cut ratio, Type B water flooding feature curve prediction method is improved. This method not only overcomes various disadvantages of Type B water flooding feature curve and in dynamic prediction of index decline prediction model, but also improves water cut ratio prediction＇ s accuracy, finally providing better method for development index prediction. Comparison and analysis of production data in mature oilfield by water flooding and predicted results by above method show its feasibility and effect. Thus, we can predict development index by using this method in future to guide practical development and production.