基于有序聚类分析的高速公路路段长度划分研究

Research on Section Division of Freeway with Ordinal Clustering Method

提出了基于F isher有序聚类分析的高速公路路段长度划分方法,以事故数沿每公里的空间分布为聚类指标进行路段长度划分,通过实例验证,一方面发现按照F isher有序聚类分析方法划分路段的结果能够使得分段后的事故频数很好地服从一定的概率分布,有益于模型的构建;另一方面,应用该方法分段能够很好地考虑事故的发生水平,把事故水平相近的邻近路段划分到同一研究样本内,有助于准确地量化影响因素的作用,在样本量不是特别大的情况下,能够突出两者之间的关系.

Roadway section division is the first step to establish accident prediction model.Generally speaking,there are two methods in the roadway section division： One is fixed length method and the other is variable length method.In this paper a new method of freeway section division is proposed based on the ordinal clustering method,and the clustering index is the accident frequency per kilometer distributed along the roadway.By example analysis,it is discovered that accident frequency of each segment obtained by this method is obedient to certain probability distribution,which is beneficial for the establishment of model.This method is an innovative attempt and has good application value.