洮河流域气候变化及其对水资源的影响

Impact of Climate Changing to Water Resource in Taohe River Valley

利用洮河流域气象观测资料和水资源定位观测资料,分析气候变化特征、水资源变化特征及其二者的关系,建立水资源气候模式。分析表明:洮河流域降水量年际变化呈下降趋势,降水量变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在-14.5^-4.6 mm/10 a之间,降水量递减以夏季降水量递减为主。气温年际变化趋势呈显著上升趋势,气温变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在0.12~0.59℃/10 a之间,增温率以冬季最大,年际变化趋势从20世纪70年代之后持续上升。年干燥指数变化呈显著上升趋势,年干燥指数变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在0.05~0.12/10 a之间。近50年来洮河流域气候趋于暖干化。洮河流域水资源呈显著下降趋势,年际变化存在2~3,8~9,15 a的年际周期变化。水资源与降水量呈显著正相关,与干燥指数呈显著负相关,降水量减少,干燥指数上升,导致水资源减少。

Based on the surface meteorology and water resource observation data in the Taohe river valley, the characters of climate evolution and water resource change, and their relationship are analyzed, in addition the water resources climate model is also established. The resu＇t show that the inter-annual change of precipitation display descending trend, the tendency rate is -14.5 --4.6 ram/10 a, this reduction mainly happened in summer. The results also show that the inter-annual change of temperature display marked ascending trend, the tendency rate is 0.12-0. 59℃/10 a, this accessional appeared most in winter,this ascending trend appeared from 1970 s and it＇s sharp point was at 1970＇ s, the aridity index also display prominent ascending trend, the tendency rate is 0.05-0. 12/10a, in recent 50 years the climate of the Taohe river valley show warming and drying trend. It is also found that the water resources display remarkable descending trend, it exist 2-3, 8-9, 15 a period, water resource show marked positive correlation with precipitation, while it show marked negative correlation with aridity index, the water source will decrease if precipitation decrease and dry index ascend.