摘要
首先使用多项分对数模型解释消费者的空间选择行为;然后基于模型进行模拟,再现个体消费者最可能实施的回游轨迹,发现消费者在南京东路中的顺游行为、折返行为、跨越行为等行为特征,以及在回游过程中易被忽略或易使行为不稳定发生的空间问题;探讨影响消费者停留的多种空间原因。最后在南京东路"金三角"地区大规模开发以及假设河南中路以东段步行化两种空间结构改变的情形下,预测消费者回游轨迹的变化。
In this paper the multinomial logit model is calibrated to explain consumers＇ space choice behavior; the multi-stop tracks of individuals are derived through model simulation, which helps to find some behavioral characteristics such as forwarding, back-turning, and spanning as well as spatial problems that may make some space ignored and cause unstable behavior; spatial reasons that influence consumers＇ visits are discussed. Finally, changes of the multi-stop tracks under the situations of the development of the ＂Golden Triangle＂ area and imagined pedestrianization of the currently non-pedestrian section are predicted and presented.
出处
《城市规划》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第3期33-40,共8页
City Planning Review
关键词
空间选择行为
多项分对数模型
回游轨迹
行为特征
行为预测
南京东路
space choice behavior
multinomial logit model
multi-stop track
behavioral characteristic
behavior prediction
East Nanjing Road
