PRECIS模式对宁夏气候模拟能力的初步验证

Preliminary validation of PRECIS climate simulation in Ningxia

本文获得了受权使用英国Hadley气候中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS已模拟好的中国境内的数据,取其宁夏区域内的模拟值与同期实际观测资料进行对比,分析验证PRECIS模式对宁夏区域气候的模拟能力。结果表明:PRECIS能够模拟宁夏年平均和夏季平均气温的空间分布特征;与观测值相比,模拟的最高气温平均偏差仅为0.5℃;PRECIS能够模拟出15a月平均气温逐渐升高的趋势以及逐日平均、最高和最低气温发生频率的分布特征。PRECIS能够模拟出宁夏年平均和夏季降水基本的空间差异和季节分布特征,但对月平均降水的模拟值整体偏高。

In this paper the ECMWF reanalysis data 1979 - 1993 is used as quasi observational lateral conditions to drive PRECIS , and the simulated in Ningxia results were compared with the observation in the same periods. Results show that the features of spatial distributions of annual and seasonal mean temperatures in Ningxia can be well simulated by PRECIS, the average bias of the simulated maximum temperature is 0. 5 ℃. In addition, based on PRECIS it is found that the monthly mean temperature tends to increase and how daily mean, maximum, minimum temperature distribute. The basic spatial distribution feature of annual and summer mean precipitation can be simulated by PRECIS , but the simulated monthly precipitation is systematically higher than observation.