基于“三元悖论”视角的我国货币政策失效原因探析

Reasons for Inefficiency of Our Country's Current Monetary Policy——Analysis Based on Theory of Ternary Paradox

在克鲁格曼"三元悖论"的三种政策目标组合中,理论上我国选择的是"固定汇率制+资本管制+货币政策独立"。但在实际操作中,我国的汇率呈现单边上扬的走势、资本项目也在逐步放开、货币政策缺乏独立性,由此导致我国货币政策失效。根据扩展的"三元悖论",我国应该选择的近期目标是"货币政策相对独立+资本有限流动+汇率有限浮动",长远目标是"货币政策完全独立+资本完全流动+汇率自由浮动"。

In the combination of three policy objectives of P. Krugman＇s ternary paradox, theoretically, our government chooses the model： fixed exchange rate system ＋ capital control ＋ monetary policy independence. But in the practical operation, our country＇s exchange rate assumes unilateral bullish tendency, the capital items are increasingly loosened and our monetary policy is short of independency, which leads to the inefficiency of the monetary policy. According to the extended ternary paradox, the short - term aim which our country should choose is ： comparative independence of monetary policy ＋ limited capital flow ＋ limited exchange rate float, and the long - term aim is ： full independence of monetary policy ＋ complete capital flow ＋ free exchange rate float.