中国投资波动影响因素变化分析

Analysis on the Change in factors Impinging Investment Fluctuation in China

中国近50年的投资波动分为5个不同尺度和1个趋势项,其中以2.7年的小尺度、40年的大尺度和趋势为主,其长期趋势主要与宏观经济体制的变化相关。比较改革开放以来在40年尺度上的80和90年代两个阶段投资波动的影响因素变化发现劳动力、投资弹性系数、工业及主要产品、交通设施、价格、存货、教育、城市消费水平、粮食等对固定资产投资波动影响上升,而农业产值和外贸对投资波动影响却下降。

Since recent 50 years, Chinese investment fluctuation concludes five different scales and one trend, 2.7 years featured by small scale, 40 years featured by large scale and trend are the major ones. On the view of trend, Chinese investment fluctuation is mainly related with the change of macro - economic policies. On the view of 40 years scale, through analyzing the factors affecting Chinese investment in the 1980＇ s and the 1990＇ s, it can be seen that fixed assets is affected more and more by labor, investment flexibility coefficient, industry and its major products, transport infrastructure, price, changes in inventories, education, urban consumption level and grain. The agriculture production value and foreign trend affects the investment fluctuation decreasingly.