摘要
本文结合我国二元经济结构的特殊国情,在对标准的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森模型拓展的基础上,运用我国与美国的数据对人民币实际汇率的变动趋势进行了实证检验。结果表明,在标准的和拓展的两种模型下,人民币实际汇率均存在显著的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应,即我国与美国间可贸易部门和不可贸易部门生产率的差异决定了两国间相对物价水平的差异。其中,拓展模型更加适应我国实际国情,其效应比标准模型显著得多。巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说的分析框架对揭示人民币实际汇率升值的必然趋势有很强的解释作用。
Based on the derivation of standard Balassa- Samuelson model, this paper makes empirical analysis, using the data of US and China, and considering the real condition of China' s dual economic structure. The result shows that under the condition of both standard and derivation model, Renminbi real exchange rate exists prominent Balassa- Samuelson effect. That is, productivity' s diversity between the tradable and non- tradable sectors in China and US determines the diversity of the relative prices of two countries. Especially, the derivation model is more suitable for China, which has greater effect than the standard model. The analytical framework of Balassa- Samuelson Effect Hypothesis has great explanation significance to reveal the inevitable trend of Renminbi real exchange rate' s appreciation.
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第3期30-36,共7页
Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目<完善我国汇率形成机制问题研究>(05BJY097)的阶段性研究成果