基于平均车速和车速标准差的路段安全分析方法

A Safety Analysis Method for Highway Based on Average Speed and Speed Standard Deviation

以我国几条典型高速公路交通事故统计资料为基础,研究了车辆平均车速、车速标准差对路段交通安全的影响。首先分析了车辆平均车速、车速标准差对路段事故率的影响机理;然后利用统计样本进行了路段事故率与平均速度、速度离散性、车速标准差系数的偏相关分析,从计算结果发现分析路段事故率与车速离散性的相关系数最大,表明影响分析路段交通安全的主要因素是车速分散性;最后采用质量控制法,筛选出同类型路段事故多发路段,并提出了同类型路段车速离散性临界值的确定方法。研究结果表明,在平均车速低于设计车速时,为降低道路事故率,应着重控制车速分散性。

Traffic safety influenced by vehicles average speed and speed standard deviation was studied based on statistical data of several typical highways in China. The mechanism of road accident rate influenced by vehicles average speed and speed standard deviation was analysed firstly, then the partial correlation analysis between accident rate and average speed, speed deviation, coefficient of speed standard variation were conducted respectively based statistical data.The computed results show that the accident rate is most correlative with speed deviation, so the speed deviation is the key factor which has influence on traffic safety. Then, the critical value of speed deviation of same type highway was put forward based on quality control method. The analysis results shows that, when vehicles average speed is lower than that of designed, speed deviation control is important to decrease road accident rate.