多层次模糊评估法在民航不安全事件风险评估中的应用

Application of Multi-layer Fuzzy Evaluation Method to Risk Assessment in Civil Aviation

通过对民航企业安全系统特点的分析,从导致不安全事件发生的人-机-环境-管理4个子系统中的不安全因素出发,采用层次分析、模糊评判和加权平均相结合的方法,分别计算了不安全事件发生的可能性和后果严重程度的指标,在该基础上得到了不安全事件发生的综合风险度,建立了民航企业不安全事件风险评估指标体系和评估方法。根据风险度评价矩阵和标准,企业可采取相应的风险控制措施,对不安全事件进行全面的管理,避免发生危险。

Through analyzing the characteristics of civil aviation safety system and the unsafe factors in human-machine-environment-management system,the possibility and severity of unsafe incidents in civil aviation are calculated by use of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation methods.Thereby,an integrated risk was obtained;the risk assessment method and the risk assessment index system for unsafe aviation incidents were established.According to the risk criteria and the calculated risk results showed in risk matrix form,the airlines can,then,take some corresponding measures to control those unsafe incidents so as to avoid the occurrence of aviation accidents.