中国对外贸易新趋势的实证分析——基于扩展型贸易引力模型

An Empirical Analysis of New Trends of China's Foreign Trade Based on Trade Gravity Model

贸易引力模型作为研究对外贸易影响因素的一个理论方法,近年来相应的理论模型随着贸易的实践演变有了相应的扩展。我国目前贸易自由化进程取得非常大的成果,而且未来还有更加积极的开放措施。到2005年中国已经成为世界第三贸易大国,对于影响贸易流量的因素的探讨成为研究的热点。本文借助近年来在贸易流量分析方面运用十分广泛的引力模型的基本分析框架,对中国与15个贸易伙伴的双边贸易进行实证研究,发现我国的贸易结构已经从传统的要素禀赋理论指导的产业间贸易转化为产品差异化为动因的产业内贸易,而且双边自由贸易协定的制度安排(FTA)对贸易增长有显著的正效应。

The Trade Gravity Model is a prevailing method in studying the current phenomena of international trade. The model has experienced upgrading with the evolvement of international trade. China has been progressing in trade liberalization and open policies. Since China has been the third largest country of export ＆ import, determinants of foreign trade should be paid attention to under the new driving force of foreign trade. In this paper, we apply the Gravity Model to explain China＇s bilateral trade flows and acquire policy implications. The empirical study shows that China follows an intra-industry trade pattern and FTAs between China and other countries play a significant role in pushing the expansion of foreign trade.