对外贸易影响我国资本形成的效应与地区差异——基于系统广义矩估计的动态面板数据分析

Effects of International trade on China's Capital Formation and Regional Difference: Analysis Based on Dynamic Panel Data with System GMM Estimation

文章依据我国30个省、自治区和直辖市(西藏除外)1985～2006年的数据,采用动态面板数据模型以及Blundell和Bond(1998)提出的系统广义矩估计法,把对外贸易对我国总体以及东、中、西部地区资本形成的效应进行了实证分析。其结果显示当期和滞后1期的进出口贸易对我国总体及东、中、西部地区的当期资本形成有正或负效应,且这种正负效应在东、中、西部地区之间存在明显的地区差异。还分析了产生这一结果的原因并提出措施发挥对外贸易对我国资本形成的正效应,尽量缩小正效应在不同地区的差异。

This paper uses the data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions, as well as municipalities （except Tibet） of China's Mainland from 1985 to 2006 to make an empirical analysis of the effects of international trade on China＇s and the East＇s, Center＇s and West＇s capital formation and district difference via dynamic panel data model estimated by system GMM from Blundell and Bond＇s （ 1998 ）. It is concluded that the effects of import and export trade of the same and last year upon Cbina＇s and the East＇s, Center＇s and West＇s capital formation is positive or negative, and the effects show an obvious regional difference. Based on the analysis, we propose some corresponding suggestions.