黑河流域近60年来径流量变化及影响因素

Characteristics and Tendencies of Annual Runoff Variations in the Heihe River Basin During the Past 60 years

基于莺落峡、正义峡水文站径流量数据及相关气候资料，借助小波分析、小波神经网络模型和GIS空间分析方法，研究黑河干流径流量变化周期、突变、趋势及原因。结果显示：1944—2005年莺落峡年均径流量变化长周期约7和25年，变化总体呈增加趋势，增加率约1．04m^3／（s·10a）；1954—2000年正义峡年均径流量变化长周期约6和27年，变化总体呈减少趋势，减少率约2．65m^3／（s·10a）；2006～2015年莺落峡年均径流量呈增加趋势，增加率约2．04m^3／（s·10a）；莺落峡径流量的增加主要与黑河流域上游气候向暖湿型转化有关，而正义峡径流量的减少与中游水资源利用量的迅速增加有关。

This paper analyzes the characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge （ 1944-2005 ） and the Zhengyi Gorge （ 1954-2005）, which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin. Methods used in the study include wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that： （ 1 ） annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge had principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and the variation ratio was 1.04 m^3/（s·10a） ; （2） annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge had principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and the variation ratio was 2.65 m^3/（ s· 10a） ; （3） during 2006-2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have ascending tendencies, and the increasing ratio is 2.04 m^3/（s·10a） ; （4） the annual runoff increase of the Yinluo Gorge had causal relationship with the increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the annual runoff decrease of the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused bv the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific foundation for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River Basin.