本币升值对股市的影响——基于日本的经验研究

The Influence of Currency Appreciation on Stock Market——A case study of Japanese Yen

作为一国经济晴雨表的股票市场,不可避免地受到汇率变动的影响。文章以日本为例,分析本币升值对股市的影响。分析表明,本币升值在短期内推动本国股市繁荣,往往伴生股市泡沫,但继续升值预期一旦消失,股市往往出现大幅度下跌。因此,在人民币持续升值的背景下,必须根据我国的实际情况慎重考虑其对股市的影响。

As economic indicator, stock market is inevitably affected by currency appreciation. Based on the example of Japanese yen, the mechanism of the impact on stock market of currency appreciation is analyzed. It shows that the appreciation of a currency boomed the stock market in a country in the short run always with a big bubble in the stock market. However, the depression of stock market and the economy often followed with the disappearance of the expectation to the appreciation of the currency in the long term. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB and its influence on China＇s stock market have to be seriously considered.