中国金融机构信贷总量增长:文献综述与实证分析

The Growth of Total Credit Amount of Chinese Financial Institutions:Literature Review and Empirical Analysis

信贷增长状况对微观经济主体的经营活动和宏观经济的运行均具有重要意义。本文在回顾相关文献的基础上,构建了中国信贷供求的理论模型,并对影响中国贷款增长的主要因素进行了实证分析。分析表明,银行存款数量、消费、银行改革都对贷款增长有较为明显的正面影响,但投资对贷款增长的影响具有不确定性;同时,银行资本数量、存贷款利率等对贷款增长也有一定影响,存款利率增加将会减少贷款发放,而贷款利率提高将会增加贷款发放。在银行更加注重利润目标的情况下,加息不会减弱银行的放贷积极性,要减少贷款的发放量必须着眼于缩小存贷利差。

The growth of credit is of great significance to both micro-economy and macro-economy. The paper constructs a theoretical supply-demand model for Chinese credit on the basis of an overview of relevant documents and makes an empirical analysis on the main factors affecting the loan growth in China. The result shows that the deposit size, the consumption and the banking reform have obvious positive impacts on the loan growth, but the effect of the investment is uncertain. Meanwhile, the amount of bank capital and the interest rate of lending and deposit also affect the loan growth, which means that a rise in deposit rate will reduce the loan and a rise in lending rate will extend it. In the situation that commecial banks pay more attention to profit, a rise in interest rate will not weaken the banks＇ motivation to increase loan, so narrowing the spread between deposit and lending rate is important to reduce the size of loan.