资源型产业系统演化分析——以黄磷产业系统演化为例

Resources-oriented industrial system evolution analysis:Yellow phosphorus industrial system evolution for example

采用我国黄磷产量数据对产业系统演化过程进行Logistic方程拟合,结果表明中国黄磷产业系统演化过程呈S型曲线,中国黄磷产量上限为95万t/a。在此基础上,引入复杂适应系统理论,通过对黄磷产业系统中相互作用的政府、黄磷企业、磷矿石企业、电力企业、环保机构等主体及主体间的流进行分析,识别黄磷产业系统发展中的主要矛盾,预测黄磷产业系统将在多主体共同作用下向生态化方向发展,并且由于湿法磷酸的替代作用而逐渐走向衰落。

China＇s production data of yellow phosphorus are used to fit the industry evolution process by logistic equation, and the result shows that the evolution process of China＇s yellow phosphorus industry presents an S curve and the yellow phosphorus product capacity won＇t exceed 950 kt/a. Complex adaptive system （CAS） theory is adopted, the actions and interrelationships of the governments, yellow phosphorus enterprises, phosphorus ore enterprises, power plants and environment organizations are analyzed, and the primary conflicts are recognized. The development trends of yellow phosphorus industry system are forecasted as that it should develop in ecological direction by the effects of multiagent interactions, and would decline for substitute of hydro phosphate.