不确定条件下多元供水系统优化模型

Optimal Model for Multivariate Water Supply System Under Uncertainty

针对多元供水系统供需两方面都存在较强不确定性的特点,提出了不确定随机多目标(ISMOP)模型,用于水资源优化配置与科学管理.该模型以经济收益最大和新鲜水消耗量最小为目标,以相关的社会、经济、水资源及环境因素为约束,以各部门对水资源的需求量和水厂建设规模为决策变量,用交互式多目标求解方法和不确定机会约束2阶段法进行求解.将该模型应用于华北某经济开发区多元供水系统优化研究中,获得了水资源合理配置方案及与之相匹配的水厂建设规模.研究表明,ISMOP模型用于区域多元供水系统管理中具有科学性、实用性和可操作性,可以为优化决策提供方法支持.

In view of the uncertainty in demand and supply subsystems of multivariate water supply system, an inexact stochastic multi-objective program （ISMOP） was presented for optimal allocation of water source. With maximum economic return and minimum fresh water consumption as objective function, the decision-making variables of the model were water demand quantity of different sectors and waterworks scale, which were constrained by some correlative conditions, such as water resource, economical, environmental and social conditions. The model could be solved by interactive multi-objective planning method and inexact chance-constrained programming （ICCP） two phrase methods. ISMOP model was applied to a regional system in a new developing area of North China. Reasonable solutions for different source water （DSW） allocation and corresponding waterworks scale were obtained. It is proved that the model is scientific, effective and valuable for regional multivariate water supply system, and can provide support for optimal decision making.