资本市场开放、本币升值与居民资产结构调整--分析中国股市上涨的三重视角

The Analysis of China's Stock Market

理论界和实务界普遍认为流动性过剩是导致股市、房市价格上涨的重要原因。自2006年下半年以来,央行接连实施紧缩性货币政策,但都未影响到股市和房市的价格上涨势头。论文从资本市场开放、人民币升值与居民资产结构调整三个角度对我国股市近期的上涨进行理论分析,认为我国资本市场对内对外的逐步开放、人民币缓慢升值与居民资产结构调整是我国股市近期上升的主要原因,并指出股市上涨的"流动性过剩"假说存在认识误区,新形势下紧缩性货币政策调控股市存在困难。

It is widely believed that excess liquidity is the fundamental reason resulting in the price rising both in stock market and real estate market. The paper theoretically analyzes the stock price rising in view of capital market openness, RMB appreciation, and portfolio readjustment by the residents, and concludes that these 3 facts are the main reason for the current situation of stock market. Finally, the authors point out that there is misunderstanding about excess liquidity hypothesis and it is difficult to implement tight monetary policy to regulate stock market under new situation.