GM(1,2)模型在内河货运量预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,2) in the Forecast of Transport Volume of Inland River

内河航道货运量预测不仅具有模糊性和动态性的特点,而且受多个因素影响,为提高预测精度,运用GM(1,N)系统综合预测模型,考虑系统中多个相关因素,并结合GM(1,1)模型,以原始离散的内河货运量、国内生产总值GDP两组数列为基础,建立GM(1,2)模型进行预测,并对2种模型的预测精度进行了对比,结果表明,GM(1,2)模型由于考虑了经济因素一定程度上增加了预测精度。

Forecast of transport volume of inland river is not only obscure and dynamic, but also influenced by several factors,In order to improve forecast accuracy,this paper establishes GM（1,2） model based on original discrete data of inland river transport volume and GDP.This paper also considers relevant factors and GM （1, l） model in the process of modeling and contracts the accuracy of two models,The results show that the accuracy of GM（1,2） is improved in some degree.