瑞安市近47年雷暴气候变化特征分析及其预测

Analysis and Prediction on Features of Climate Changes of Thunderstorm over Ruian City in the Late 47 Years

利用浙江省瑞安市1960～2006年47年的逐日雷暴资料,分析了瑞安市雷暴日数的年、季、月变化,雷暴持续期及不同保证率下的雷暴初、终日,并利用马尔柯夫概型统计方法对2007年的雷暴日数进行预测。结果表明:瑞安市年平均雷暴日数为43 d;平均初日为2月26日,平均终日为10月16日;一年12个月都有可能出现雷暴,主要集中在3～9月,其中以8月最多,12月最少,有明显的季节变化;1988年以来,每年雷暴发生的日数有减少的趋势。应用马尔柯夫链预测2007年瑞安市的雷暴日数为32～38 d,并就雷暴日数的气候变化特征和预测的应用提出建议。

Based on daily observation data of thunderstorm in Ruian during 1960～2006, the characteristics of thunderstorm were analyzed, such as annual ,seasonal and monthly variability, the first and the last day of thunderstorm occurrence. The number of thunderstorm days was predicted by method of Markov chain model. The result showed that the average annual number of thunderstorm days in Ruian was 43 d, the average first date of thunderstorm was in February 26th, and the average last date was in October 16th. The seasonal variability features of it was obvious, the incidence of thunderstorm showed a declining trend since 1988. The prediction made by Markov chain model indicated that the days of thunderstorm would be from 32 d to 38 d in 2007. Finally, the suggestions about applications of the character and the prediction of thunderstorm days were put forward.