我国能源消费误差修正模型研究--基于产业结构重型化视角的实证分析

A Study on China's Energy Consumption Error Correction Model:An Empirical Analysis Based on Heavy Industrial Structure

近年来,重工业的重新发展是我国产业结构出现重型化特征,这极大地增加了我国的能源消费。为了分析产业结构重型化条件下我国能源消费发展趋势,文章以产业结构重型化为背景,建立了我国能源消费函数,并通过构建产业结构重型化条件下我国能源消费误差修正模型检验了我国能源消费与产业结构重型化之间的短期波动和长期均衡关系,认为产业结构重型化的形成和发展对我国能源消费具有正向促进作用,具体体现在:本期重工业产值每增加1%,不仅会使同期的能源消费总量增加1.80%、下期能源消费增加1.26%,还会使下下期的能源消费降低1.37%。最后,结合我国产业结构变化和能源消费实际,认为要降低能源消费就必须对经济发展模式和能源发展战略进行调整,使经济与能源协调发展。

Recently, the re - development of China＇s heavy industry has made its industrial structure had heavy features, which has made it＇s energy consumption increase greatly. To analyze the development trend of China＇s energy consumption under conditions of the heavy industrial structure, this paper constructs Chinese energy consumption function, tests short- term fluctuations and long- term balance between energy consumption and heavy industrial structure by building error correction model of Chinese energy consumption, and reaches the conclusions that the formation and development of heavy industrial structure has a positive role in promoting energy consumption. That is, as long as the current heavy industry output value increases 1%, the total energy consumption of the same period will increase 1.80%, the total energy Consumption of the next period will increase 1.26%, the energy consumption of the 3rd period will decreas 1.37%. Finally, based on the development trends of the industrial stmctttre and energy consumption in China, the paper draws the conclusions that adjusting economic development patterns and energy development strategy and making economy coordinated with energy can reduce energy consumption.