人力资本和物质资本对我国东、西部经济增长及其波动影响的比较分析

Comparative Analysis on the Impact on Economic Growth of Western and Eastern Regions Brought by Human Capital and Investment

运用协整和VAR模型,对东、西部人力资本、物质资本与经济增长的动态关系进行研究,结果表明:①东、西部地区人力资本、资本投入与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系,并具有反向修正机制,东部地区经济有更强的自我稳定机制;②东部地区投资与经济增长之间存在双向互动关系,投资见效快,对经济的影响能持续4年;人力资本变化对经济增长的影响更持久,在经济增长的短期波动中发挥的作用更大;③西部地区自身的经济增长状况还不能吸引大量投资,经济的快速增长得益于国家的大量投入,投资变动是引起经济短期波动的重要原因。与东部相比,西部地区投资见效慢,对经济增长的影响更持久,而西部人力资本对经济增长的影响远小于东部。

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship among human capital, investment and economic growth by use of the method of co-integration and vector auto-regression model. The paper comes to 3 conclusions： ① there is a long-run equilibrium with an opposite adjustment mechanism among human capital, investment and economic growth both in eastern and western region, and eastern region has a more strong ego-maintenance mechanism; ② there is a dual interactive relationship between investment and economic growth in eastern region, investment promises quick returns and its influence lasts 4 years. And the influence of human capital lasts longer and has great impact on the short-term fluctuation of the economy; ③ economic growth of western region can＇ t attract lots of investment, the rapid growth benefits from the investment of our country. Changes of investment are the important reason for the short-term fluctuation of its economy. Besides the influence of investment in western region lasts longer than eastern region, while the influence of human capital in western region is smaller than that of eastern region.