气候变化对祁连山北坡农林牧业结构的影响与对策研究

Effect of Climate Warming on Structure of Agriculture-Forestry-Stockbreeding and Countermeasures in Northern of Qilian Mountains

揭示了气候持续变暖是祁连山北坡现代气候变化的基本特征。1986年是气候发生明显转折的年份,1987—2003年的平均气温比1961—1986年升高0.8℃,≥0℃积温和≥10℃积温增加142℃和131℃,呈线性上升趋势;降水量平均增加7.5 mm,呈曲线缓慢增多趋势。由于气候变暖,使农作物适生种植区和作物种植上限高度不同程度的提高,其中喜热棉花、喜温玉米和喜凉甘蓝型油菜分别提高100 m左右、150 m左右和200 m左右,种植面积迅速扩大,呈直线上升趋势。依据农业气候生态资源垂直分布特征和15种主要作物气候生态适生种植区以及农林牧业结构布局特点,采用气候生态相似原理,将祁连山北坡大体分为5个农林牧业气候生态区,建议性提出各区农林牧业结构的比重以及夏粮、秋粮、经济作物和饲草的种植比例,并阐明了各区未来主要发展方向。

The basic characteristic of modern climate change in northern of Qilian Mountains is climate warming continually.The climate change showed evidence transition in 1986.The annual average temperature in 1987—2003 was 0.8℃ higher than that in 1961—1986.The accumulative temperature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃increased by 142℃ and 131℃ respectively,showing liner increasing trend.The precipitation increased 7.5 mm,showing gradually increasing trend.The suitable planting section and the limited planting altitude for crops went up due to climate warming.Among the main fifteen crops,the planting altitude of cotton,corn and cole was separately increased by 100 m,150 m,200 m,with a rapidly extending of cultivation area.The northern of Qilian Mountains can be generally divided into five climatic and ecological regions for agriculture,forestry and stockbreeding,according to the vertical distribution characters of agricultural climate resources,the regionalization of the suitable planting area of the fifteen main crops,and the composition pattern of agriculture,forestry and stockbreeding,and based on the principle of climate and ecology similarity.For the five regions,their cultivation proportions of agriculture-forestry-stockbreeding and of summer grain-autumn grain-economy crop-forage grass were suggested,and their developing orientations in the future were also proposed in the paper.