全要素生产率和产业结构对能源利用影响的实证分析

The Positive Analysis of the Impact of TFP and Industry Structure on Energy Consumption

本文利用能源消耗模型进行实证分析,结果表明决定能源利用效率的关键因素和长期因素是全要素生产率,全要素生产率的不断提高导致了我国经济快速发展而单位GDP能源消耗不断降低的特殊现象.产业结构对能源消耗有显著的短期影响,当第一产业比例下降或第二产业比例上升时,能源消耗增加。市场化程度、对外开放程度对能源消耗的作用体现在全要素生产率中.2000年后能源消耗重新抬头并不否定全要素生产率的作用,而是缺乏节能意识的负面影响抵消并逆转了全要素生产率的正面作用.

This paper analyzes the energy consumption model in China. It shows that the critical and long term factor that impacts the efficiency of energy utilization is the TFP. The continuous increase of TFP creates the Chinese miracle that the quick development of economy is companied with the decrease of energy consumption per GDP. Industry Structure has short term impact on energy consumption. When the proportion of the first industry decreases or the proportion of the second industry increases, the energy consumption increases. The impacts of the openness and market economy have been included in the TFP. The increase of the energy consumption after 2000 is caused by the absence of the consciousness of energy-saving and it doesn＇t deny the effect of TFP.