我国电解铝用阳极与阴极炭块市场需求预测

The Prediction of Carbon Anode and Cathode in Chinese Electrolytic Aluminum Industry

本文首先分析了最近几年我国电解铝行业的特点,并在此基础上应用统计学知识建立统计模型,对2007～2011五年间我国的电解铝的产量进行了预测;通过分析历年来实际生产中积累的数据,本文得到了电解铝生产过程中阳极和阴极炭块的用量与电解铝产量的比例的区间值;结合2007～2011电解铝产量的预测值,文中最后得到了今后几年我国铝用阳极和阴极炭块的需求量,并给出了在置信度为95%时的区间估计值.

This paper analyses the features of the electrolytic aluminum industry in recent years, and establishes a statistic model to predict the annual production of the electrolytic aluminum during 2007 to 2011. This paper gets the interval estimation values of the proportion of the carbon anode and cathode＇s amount and the production of the electrolytic aluminum. With the production predicted, we get the demand of the carbo~ anode and cathode in the following years, and the estimation of the interval under the confidence equals to 95%.