我国银行体系流动性过剩原因的实证检验

The Empirical Test of the Excess Liquidity in the Banking System in China

近年来“流动性过剩”已成为我国的一个热点问题。本文从宏观角度出发，选取银行存贷差等可以反映流动性过剩的指标，以2000年1月-2007年10月的相关数据为基础，采用协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法得出以下结论：流动性过剩同外汇占款、货币发行量、股票市场以及贸易结构存在协整关系，外汇占款、M2、股价可以视为导致存贷差不断扩大即流动性过剩的原因，但目前贸易结构并不是导致我国流动性过剩的直接原因。

Firstly, the paper selects five indexes which reflect the excess liquidity in banking system in China, and gets a sample of statistic data from January, 2000 to October, 2007. Through three technical methods, Unit Root Test, Co - integration Test and Granger Causality Test, the paper gets some fruitful conclusions ： there is one Co - integration among the excess liquidity, excessive currents, stock index and the trade structure, and all the four factors except trade structure can be regarded as the reasons leading to the excess liquidity.