石门揭煤条件下动力现象的三分类预测研究

PREDICTION STUDY OF THREE DYNAMIC FORCE PHENOMENA UNDER THE CONDITION OF UNCOVERING COAL SEAM IN CROSS CUT

根据“球壳失稳”假说的原理，确定了初始释放瓦斯膨胀能和软煤厚度作为石门揭煤条件下动力现象的预测指标，在４６次突出模拟试验过程中测定了不同动力现象对应的数据，用贝叶斯准则下的多组逐步判别分析法处理这些数据，建立了石门揭煤动力现象三分类预测的判别函数，并且其回判的准确性达到１００％．

According to the principle of the “spherical shell destabilization” theory,the expansion energy of initial relased gas and the thickness of soft coal are defined as the test indexes to predict the dynamic phenomena when coal is uncovered in a cross cut.A lot of test data corresponding to various dynamic phenomena are determined in 46 experiments of outburst simulation .Handled these data with Bayes multigroup progressively discriminatory analysis method,established criterion function for three dynamic force phenomena during coal uncovering in a cross cut,and its repeatable accuracy is up to 100%.