商丘市小麦白粉病预测模式研究

Study on Prediction Model for Wheat Powdery Mildew in Shangqiu City

以商丘市1995-2005年的小麦白粉病发病面积、地面气象资料和大气环流特征量为依据,利用相关系数法进行因子普查,筛选出了影响商丘市小麦白粉病发生和流行的主要地面气象因子和大气环流特征因子及其关键时段,并利用多元线性回归方法建立了数学预测模型,模型历史拟合准确率为95.2%。利用该预测模式在2006年和2007年对商丘市白粉病发病面积进行预测,预报精度分别为93.1%和90.2%。

Based on the disease area of wheat and the atmospheric circulation characteristic value powdery mildew, the surface meteorological records during 1995-2005 in Shangqiu city, the degree of wheat powdery mildew was analyzed. The key surface meteorological factors, the atmospheric circulation characteristic factors and key time to influence the happening and spreading of wheat powdery mildew were selected in terms of correlation analysis, The prediction model was established by multivariate linear regression and the historical simulated results from 1995 to 2005 achieved 95.2% , the extrapolated prediction precision of 2006 and 2007 can achieve 93.1% and 90. 2% respectively.