昆仑山克里雅河冬季径流及冻土与气候变化

Study on Monthly Runoff Volume in Winter,Frozen Earth and Climate Change in the Keriya River Basin in the Kunlun Mountains

选取位于西昆仑高海拔有多年冻土的山区流域克里雅河，利用水文站和气象站47年（1957—2003）逐月气温和冬季河流径流资料，分析水文及冻土对气候变化的响应。结果表明：l1～12月河流径流对冬季升温有显著的响应，增幅为6％-8％。10月和11月流量的相关性最好，12月和1月径流呈现类似于冻土中土壤水分与地温的非线性相关。河流最小流量的出现是由于冻结期从1月推后到2月。同时发现，9月和次年1月流量存在可靠的遥相关，这与9月融水径流增大有关。冬季冻土深度减小，河川径流增多将提高下游绿洲地下水位．有利于保护环境。12月径流是响应气候与冻土变化最灵敏的水文因子。

Since the 1980s, climate change in Xinjiang has been significant, and the air temperature and annual precipitation have been increased by O. 8℃ -1.3℃ and 22%-33% respectively. In this study, the responses of monthly runoff volume of the Keriya River in winter and frozen earth in the Keriya River Basin located in the west Kunlun Mountains with high elevation and permafrost are calculated and analyzed using the monthly meteorological and hydrological data observed by the meteorological and hydrological stations in the study area during the period of 1957 -2003. The purpose of this study is to reveal the change of monthly runoff volume of the Keriya River in winter and water translocation in frozen earth in the drainage basin using the autocorrelation and teleconnection analytic methods. The results reveal that the response of monthly runoff volume of the river in November and December to the temperature increase in winter is significant, and the monthly runoff volume is increased by 6%～8%. The correlation between the monthly runoff volumes in October and November is the best, and there is a nonlinear correlation between the monthly runoff volumes in December and next January, which is similar to that between the moisture content in frozen soil and ground temperature. Occurrence of the minimum discharge of the river is related to the increase of air temperature and ground temperature as well as the delay of freezing period from January to February. Furthermore, it is found that there is a reliable teleconnection between the discharges in September and next January, which is related the increase of glacial and snow melt water in September. The groundwater level in the oases in the lower reaches is raised along with the reduction of the thickness of frozen earth and the increase of runoff volume, which is advantageous for the entironment regeneration. Monthly runoff volume in December is the most sensitive factor to respond to the climate change and frozen earth change.