窟野河季节性断流及其成因分析

Analysis on the Seasonal Drying-up Causes of Kuye River

本文以最新实测径流资料为依据，采用不均匀系数、集中度和集中期等指标，对窟野河流域径流特性进行了分析；并利用滑动平均法和Mann—Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法，分析了窟野河流域径变化趋势；运用多元回归分析法和双累积曲线法，建立了降雨与径流的相关关系式。最后，综合上述研究，定量计算了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明，窟野河径流年内分配极不均匀，径流多集中在7月、8月；在一定显著性水平下。流域多年径流变化呈明显下降趋势，近年来尤为明显；降水和人类活动在不同时期对径流的影响程度不同，2000年～2005年间人类活动影响所占比例高达92％，人类活动加剧是导致窟野河流域断流的重要原因。

Kuye River is the main tributary of the Yellow fiver, affected by the development of economic and climate changes, the natural environment and the water recycle system of the fiver had been deteriorating in recent several decade year, runoff yield from the catchment decreased gradually, even caused the running out of the fiver, this handicaped the development of the shaanxi energy chemical industry base, had evoked great attention in recent years. By the latest data of hydrological observation stations in Kuye River, the paper analyzes the time-space distribution regulation of annual runoff with the unevenness, concentration, and variation index, tested the tendency of runoff by the moving average check and the Mann-Kendall non-parameter statistical method, built the correlation between rainfall and runoff through multi-recursive analysis and accumulation curves. The results showed that the unevenness is 0.34, the concentration is 0.36, and the Mann-Kendall test U（Rt） is -4.84, Meet the I U（di）l 〉 1.96, this showed that the annual distribution of runoff at the Wenjiachuan station was extremely uneven, and was accumulated in July and August , accounted for 45.1% of the total annual runoff. The multi-year change of runoff had a distinctive decreased tendency, especially in recent years. The major factors correlated with the runoff changes is rainfall and human activitiy, with the application of multivariate linear correlation analysis, the descending proportions caused by the reduction of rainfall and human activitiy are respectively evaluated, the rainfall and human activities had a different affect on runoff in different periods, in 1980- 1989 and 1990 - 1999, the rainfall is the main course of runoff descending, but during 2000 - 2005, the runoff descending proportions caused by the human activities are high to 92 %, so human activities are the direct reason for the running out of Kuye River. By analyzing the water consumption dates and precipitation in recent years, the results showed that the normal fluctuation of precipitation has no great and direct impact on the running out, so the growth of water consumption is the direct cause for the running out of the fiver. This can be used as a guidance for water resource management in Kuye River, it is necessary to put forward the comprehensive treatment scheme and established a water fight allocation methods for the future development.