山东省人口红利的过程判断及其对经济增长作用研究

Study on Process Estimation of Demographic Dividend and its Effect on Economy Increasing

在人口转变过程中,由于出生率与死亡率下降初始时间与速度的不同步,后者先于前者发生。会形成一个"中间大,两头小"有利于经济发展的人口年龄结构,人口学家称这段时期为"人口机会窗口"或"人口红利(demo-graphic dividend)"。本文根据人口类型划分标准对山东省及其区域人口红利进行了过程判断,并通过计算劳动力对经济增长的贡献率即劳动贡献率来显示人口红利对经济增长的推动作用,最后提出了充分实现山东省人口红利的途径。

In the process of population conversion, owing to decline of the original time and velocity the natality and mortality is not synchronization, the latter is earlier. A “midst big, both sides small” age configuration of in favor of economy＇s development will come to being, this is named “population chance window” or “demographic dividend” by population expert. Base on partition standard of population styles this text carried through the process estimation of Shandong province and its area＇s demographic dividend, and the author showed the driving effect of demographic dividend right to economy increasing passing accounting the contribution rate of labor force right to economy increasing named labor contribution rate, finally put forward the approach for realization the demographic dividend of Shandong province adequately.