京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性空间分异的变化

Spatial Differentiation Changes of Regional Scale Macroscopic Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters of Beijing,Tianjin and Tangshan Area

以1985,1995,2000,2004年为代表时期,借助主成分分析等方法,初步研究了京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性近20年来的变化。结果表明:1985年以来,研究区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性空间分异的变化,越来越显著地表现为4种主要脆弱性空间分异模式(Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ)的变化,各种模式的变化在形式、程度和主要驱动因素上各有特点:模式Ⅰ始终与研究区的城市化、人口与经济特别是工商业经济的发展水平密切相关,其变化以方差贡献变化为主,20年来该模式的方差贡献增加了约13%,对研究区脆弱性空间分异整体特点的影响不断加强;模式Ⅱ和模式Ⅲ一直与研究区农业、农村和农民问题关系密切,20年来两模式的变化主要体现在载荷分布和各模式反映的脆弱性区域分异格局上,且两模式及两模式的变化间还具有明显的反向特点;模式Ⅳ也发生了形式不同和程度各异的变化,但总的变化幅度相对较小。1985年以来,研究区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性空间分异的整体格局总体稳定,不同时期地区间的脆弱性相对程度在横向上呈波动性变化,除京、津、唐、秦皇岛和承德等大中城市的市区及其周边部分辖县较明显外,其他地区均以小幅调整为主。

Based on our previous researches and taking in 1985, 1995, 2000 and 2004 as representative time references and an index system for analyzing the spatial changes of Regional Scale Macroscopic Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters（RSMVED）of Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan area, the temporal changes of RSMVED of this area from 1985 to 2004 have been analyzed mainly through Principal Component Analyzing methods. The result shows the regional differentiation changes of RSMVED of this area, from 1985, are mainly controlled, more and more remarkably, by the changes of 4 major vulnerability spatial differentiation patterns, and the inter-stage variation styles, extents and driving forces of these patterns are different between each other. Among them, pattern- Ⅰ is always closely related to the area＇s urbanization, population and economy （industry and commerce in particular） development levels. The principal change of this pattern is on its variance contribution explained, which increased nearly 13% from 1985 to 2004, indicating its great impacts on area＇s RSMVED differentiation features. Both pattern-Ⅱ and pattern-Ⅲ show well correlations. In each stage, the pattern-Ⅱ and pattern-Ⅲ are always closely related to the area＇s agriculture, peasantry and rural area issues, and the most explicit variations of these two patterns both come from their load distributions and from the regional difference structures they reflected. Moreover, pattern- Ⅱ and pattern-Ⅲ with their changes also have some considerable reverse characters. Some changes also have taken place in pattern-IV, but their amplitudes are much smaller on the whole than that of other patterns. Further analysis presents that, from 1985 to 2004, the integrated regional differentiation structures of RSMVED of studied area in different stages are rather stable, except some obvious adjustments only in the area＇s right urban spots of each large and middle-sized cities including Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao and Chengde as well as in some of these city＇s surrounding areas.