摘要
由于影响因素的复杂与目前科学水平的限制,中长期水文预报还处于探索、发展阶段。预报模型的适用性也有待深入研究。周期均值叠加法将随时间变化的水文要素序列分离成若干个周期波,然后将周期波进行外延,再进行线性叠加,从而获得预报结果。介绍了应用方差分析计算周期的概念和计算方法。笔者用周期均值叠加法对长江寸滩站的年最高水位、月最高水位进行了预报,预报误差在15%以内。
Because of complex influencing factors and technology level limited,the study on the middle-to-long term hydrological prediction is in the stage of exploration and development.The applicability of prediction model is also needed to study deeply.The periodic mean superposition method can predict the result through decomposing the hydrological time series into several periodic waves,extrapolating the periodic waves,and linear superposition.The concept and method for periodical calculation with variance analysis are introduced.The annually and monthly highest water levels of Cuntan Station of the Yangtze River are predicted with method,and the prediction error is less than 15%.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2007年第8期15-17,共3页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
周期波
周期均值叠加
中长期水文预测
外延
方差分析
F检验
periodic wave
periodic mean superposition
middle-to-long-term hydrological prediction
extrapolating
variance analysis
F-test
