1470-1949年山东蝗灾的韵律性及其与气候变化的关系

The Rhythm of Locusts Plague and Its Relationship with Climate Change in Shandong Province During 1470—1949A.D.

基于历史文献中的蝗灾记录,重建了1470-1949年山东省蝗灾县数序列。结果表明：1470-1949年,山东蝗灾规模没有显著的增减趋势,而是呈准周期性变化,其中主要周期为：2-3年,准5年,10-11年,16-18年,26-28年,80-100年。进一步分析发现：虽然温度变化与蝗灾规模在年代际尺度上相关不显著,但温暖气候却是蝗灾大爆发的必要条件,而寒冷气候则会限制蝗灾规模。夏季降水的年际变化与蝗灾县数呈显著负相关,即夏季干旱有利于蝗灾的大规模发生。尽管自20世纪50年代以来,人为的治蝗活动可能已经明显地影响了蝗灾变化规律,但未来数十年内气候持续增暖对其的影响仍不容忽视。

Based on the locusts records in history documents, the number of counties with locusts plague occurrence （NCLP） in Shandong Province during 1470-- 1949 A.D. is reconstructed. The result reveals that there is no significant linear trend in the series of NCLP during 1470-- 1949 A.D. over Shandong Province. However, the rhythm is very evident, with the significant cycles of 2--3, 5, 10--11, 16--18, 26--28, and 80--100 years. The relationship between locusts plague with climate shows that： 1） warmer winter-half-year is necessary for outbreak of locusts plague in the decade-scale, while the colder winter-half-year can prevent it from outbreak. 2） There is a significant negative linear correlation between the series of NCLP and summer precipitation for the annual variability, but not for decadal variability. It is implicated that the climate warming in future may lead to the high risk of locusts plague, though the locusts activities have been deeply influenced by human since the 1950s.