基于改进模型的城镇建设用地预测分析——以张家界市永定区为例

URBAN BUILT-UP LAND PREDICTION BASED ON MODIFIED MODEL --A CASE STUDY IN YONGDING DISTRICT, ZHANGJIAJIE

随着社会经济的飞速发展，人口快速增长，对建设用地的需求也迅速增长，从而加剧了人地之间的矛盾。在上一轮土地利用规划中，所预测的建设占用耕地指标与实际建设占用耕地情况有较大出入，这从一个侧面反映了现行的城镇建设用地预测方法的不尽完善之处。所以，在新一轮土地利用总体规划修编中，对城镇建设用地做出更加科学的、符合实际的预测，是一个重要的基础性问题。以张家界市为例，提出并验证了一种适宜的建设用地预测方法一改进后的双因素预测模型。最后运用此预测方法对永定区2020年建设用地需求量进行科学预测，以满足经济社会发展的用地需求。

With the rapid development of economy and the increase of population, the demands for built-up land are increasing. Therefore, the conflict between people and land become intensified. During the last land-use planning, the quantity of cultivated land occupied by built-up land was very different from that was predicted, it reflects the disadvantages of the built-up land prediction method. So, in the new land-use planning, it is very important to make the urban build-up land prediction more scientific and logical. Taking Zhangjiajie as an example, this article brings forward and validates a suitable method, the modified twofactor prediction model. At last, we used the model to predict the amount of built-up land in 2020.