中国能源消费与各产业的经济关系研究

Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth of Chinese Major Industries

能源消费量与经济发展水平之间关系问题，是世界各国研究的热点问题之一。鉴于此，本文基于格兰氏因果关系和误差修正模型，以1980-2005年数据为样本，深入研究了我国三大产业能源消费量与其经济增长之间的关系，结果显示，第三产业能源消费量与其经济增长之间没有显著的Granger因果关系。而第二产业能源消费量与经济增长不仅存在协整关系，也存在着从经济增长到能源消费总量的单向Granger因果关系，第二产业GDP增长1％，其能源消费量增长2．295％。进一步，对10个主要工业部门能源消耗量与GDP增长的双向关系进行了初步分析，结果显示，工业部门中高耗能用户的发展对能源的依赖性尤其强。因此，在能源稀缺的条件下，应优化产业结构，调整好各部门的能源消费量，以促进经济的可持续发展。

The relations between energy consumption and economic development has been one of hot issues in the world. Based on GDP and industrial energy consumption during 1980 and 2005, this paper analyzes the relations between energy consumption of Chinese three industries and its economic growth using the Granger-Causality （GC） and Error Correction Model （ECM） ,The result shows that there is no Granger causality between energy consumption of the tertiary industry and its economic growth, but for the secondary industry, there is not only co-integration relationship, hut also one-way causality, and the energy consumpti on will increase by 2. 295% when GDP increases by 1%. Moreover, there is two directions relationship between energy consumption of ten major industrial sectors and GDP growth. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the industry structure, adjust energy consumption of all sectors, so as to improve economic sustainable development.