1992-2005年中国旅游业全要素生产率及省际差异

Tourism Total Factor Productivity and Its Regional Variation in China from 1992 to 2005

全要素生产率是评价一个国家或地区经济增长质量和技术进步的基本指标。本文采用生产函数法对1992-2005年中国旅游业全要素生产率(TTFP)以及旅游经济增长方式进行研究,分析TTFP变化与旅游增长之间的关系,探讨各省旅游增长方式的演化过程与变化趋势,得出了以下结论:①中国旅游业属于典型的(劳动)要素驱动型增长方式,劳动力要素投入对中国旅游经济增长的贡献为63.69%;②旅游业年均技术进步速度(TTFP)为2.91%,技术进步速度缓慢的原因主要在于投资效率低下和基础设施投资不足;③旅游业技术进步是旅游业增长的充分条件而非必要条件,旅游吸引物在空间上的"不可移动性"和不发达地区的"飞地旅游"性质决定了旅游业的技术扩散方式从根本上有别于传统产业,它既不受制于区域经济发展水平,与区域地理位置也不具有对应性;④中国各省旅游业增长方式与发展水平已经出现了明显的分化,并且差异正在逐年扩大,技术进步速度(TTFP)差异是导致各省旅游发展水平分化的原因,如果各省TTFP差异继续扩大,可能会进一步加大各省旅游业发展水平的差距,加强旅游业公共服务领域的建设对于推动中国旅游业技术进步和增长质量提高具有决定性作用。

Total factor productivity is a basic index reflecting the quality of economic growth and the rate of technical progress in a country or a region. Adopting the Solow＇s Residual Method and the C-D production function, this paper estimates tourism total factor productivity （TTFP） growth rates and identifies sources of tourism economic growth for the period from 1992 to 2005 in China and its 30 provinces （municipalities or regions） except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan）. Based on it, this paper analyzes the causality between TTFP and tourism economic growth, then classifies the tourism growth patterns of 30 provinces into five categories according to the contribution of TTFP to tourism economic growth, and finally discusses the divergence of TTFPs and tourism economic growth rates among 30 provinces. The main conclusions are as follows. （1） The Chinese tourism industry belongs to an obvious factor-driven economy with cheap labor forces contributed 63.69% to the total economic growth. （2） The average growth rate of TTFP is slightly positive by 2.91% during the sample period thanks to the effect of tourism education, encouraging policy, and better information provision, but may be hampered by the inadequate infrastructure investment and investment inefficiency. （3） Tourism technical progress is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for tourism growth, and the improvement of tourism technical progress is irrelevant to region＇s economic level, nor to its geographic location due to the enclave tourism model and the special trait of tourism that tourist attractions are ＂fixed＂ in geographic location. （4） There is obvious and ever enlarging divergence among provinces in tourism growth pattern and TTFP growth rate. If it continues, the provincial tourism developing level will be even more unbalanced in the future. But it will be helpful for the laggards to obtain higher TTFP growth rate by enhancing the public services system.